Global Lifetime Risk for Stroke About 25 Percent in 2016

Estimated risk from age 25 years onward is 24.9 percent, with geographic variation in risk

THURSDAY, Dec. 20, 2018 (HealthDay News) -- The global lifetime risk for stroke was 24.9 percent among adults aged 25 years and older in 2016, according to a study published in the Dec. 20 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.

Valery L. Feigin, M.D., Ph.D., from the University of Washington in Seattle, and colleagues calculated the cumulative risks for first stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke among adults aged 25 years and older using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence.

The researchers found that starting from age 25, the estimated global lifetime risk for stroke was 24.9 percent, with risks of 24.7 and 25.1 percent for men and women, respectively. The risks for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were 18.3 and 8.2 percent, respectively. In high-, high-middle-, and low-sociodemographic index countries, the estimated lifetime risks for stroke were 23.5, 31.1, and 13.2 percent, respectively. People in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe (38.8, 31.7, and 31.6 percent, respectively) had the highest estimated lifetime risks for stroke; the lowest risk was seen in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8 percent). From 1990 to 2016, there was an increase in the mean global lifetime risk for stroke (22.8 to 24.9 percent).

"In low-SDI countries ..., the estimated lower lifetime risk of stroke is the result of a high competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke at both younger and older ages and does not necessarily represent a lower incidence of stroke or more effective prevention and treatment strategies," the authors write.

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